Betting Odds and Picks for Cubs vs Royals - 8/08/26

-155O/U: 9
(-110/-110)+135

Clay Holmes – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-155)
Generating 17.6 outs per start this year on average, Clay Holmes places him the 90th percentile.
Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
Tyrone Taylor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
Tyrone Taylor has made notable strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 12.1% seasonal rate to 28.6% in the last two weeks.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.6% — 99th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Seth Lugo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
Seth Lugo’s four-seamer percentage has dropped by 5.5% from last season to this one (21.1% to 15.6%) .
Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
Nick Loftin – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
Nick Loftin has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.6-mph dropping to 75.6-mph over the last 7 days.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Collectively, Kansas City Royals batters have not performed well when it comes to hitting balls in the launch angle band that tends to optimize base hits (between -4° and 26°), placing 4th-worst in the league.
Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.80 Units / 36% ROI)
Chicago Cubs – Run Line -1.5 (+100)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the Run Line in 16 of their last 21 away games (+14.65 Units / 58% ROI)
Carson Kelly – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-120/-110)
Carson Kelly has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+9.30 Units / 37% ROI)

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