Betting Odds and Expert Picks for Rays vs Reds 7/25/25

Tampa Bay Rays

@

Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds and Tampa Bay Rays prepare to clash at Great American Ball Park on July 25, 2025, both teams find themselves in a tight spot, each sporting a record of 53-50 this season. With the postseason aspirations slightly flickering for both clubs, this Interleague matchup carries significant weight as they look to gain momentum heading into the second half of the season.

In their last outing, the Reds faced a disappointing defeat, while the Rays are riding a wave of confidence after a recent strong performance. The Reds are projected to start Nick Martinez, who has had an average season with an ERA of 4.73. However, advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, as his xERA of 4.12 indicates potential for improvement. Conversely, Zack Littell will take the mound for the Rays, boasting a solid ERA of 3.53 but facing the possibility of regression, as his xFIP suggests he may have benefited from good fortune this year.

Offensively, the Reds rank 15th in MLB, while the Rays are slightly better at 13th. The Rays excel in batting average, sitting 3rd overall, which could be pivotal against Martinez’s struggles. Meanwhile, both teams have seen their best hitters performing well recently, with the Reds’ standout recording a .533 batting average and the Rays’ leader boasting a .364 average with three home runs in the last week.

With a high Game Total of 9.5 runs, bettors might find value in the Reds’ implied team total of 4.75 runs, considering the projections suggest they have the potential to outperform expectations. Given the Reds’ average bullpen ranking at 14th, they may need to rely on their offense to secure a victory against the top-ranked Rays bullpen. This matchup promises to be a compelling contest, as both teams vie for a crucial win.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Zack Littell – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Zack Littell’s fastball velocity has dropped 1 mph this season (91.4 mph) below where it was last season (92.4 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Christopher Morel – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Christopher Morel has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (73% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Tampa Bay has been the #28 team in the league when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (14.3% rate this year).
  Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Martinez – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Martinez to throw 85 pitches in this matchup (12th-least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Will Benson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Will Benson has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 98.6-mph average to last season’s 93.4-mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The 7.1% Barrel% of the Cincinnati Reds grades them out as the #28 club in baseball this year by this stat.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 57 of their last 98 games (+15.35 Units / 14% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 86 games (+11.80 Units / 13% ROI)
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-270/+200)
  Matt McLain has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games (+8.40 Units / 68% ROI)