Betting Odds and Expert Picks for Rays vs Astros 5/31/25

Tampa Bay Rays

@

Houston Astros

The Houston Astros are set to face off against the Tampa Bay Rays on May 31, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup at Minute Maid Park. The Astros, currently holding a record of 31-26, are navigating an above-average season, while the Rays sit at 29-28, marking them as an average team so far. The stakes are high for both teams, especially after the Astros secured a narrow 2-1 victory over the Rays just yesterday.

On the mound, the Astros are projected to start Colton Gordon, a left-handed pitcher with a less-than-stellar ERA of 5.52 this season. Gordon’s advanced metrics suggest he may have been unlucky, as his 3.82 xFIP indicates potential for improvement. However, he has struggled with consistency, projecting to allow 2.6 earned runs and 5.0 hits in just 4.9 innings today, which could be a concern against a Rays lineup that ranks 19th in offensive production.

Zack Littell will take the hill for the Rays, bringing a more favorable 3.97 ERA and a 4-5 win-loss record this year. While Littell’s projections indicate he might allow an average of 2.9 earned runs over 5.7 innings, his higher FIP of 5.11 suggests he may have benefitted from some good fortune. Against the Astros’ offense, which ranks 13th overall but boasts the 7th best batting average, Littell will need to navigate carefully.

With the Astros’ bullpen ranked 8th and the Rays at 12th, the late innings could be pivotal. Betting markets currently favor the Astros with a moneyline of -135, reflecting a belief in their potential to pull off a win despite the close nature of the matchup. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, hinting at a fairly competitive contest ahead.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Zack Littell – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Zack Littell’s fastball velocity has fallen 1 mph this year (91.4 mph) below where it was last year (92.4 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Brandon Lowe has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 91.9-mph average to last year’s 89.8-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.4%) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 9th-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Houston Astros Insights

• Colton Gordon – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Given that groundball batters have a big advantage over flyball pitchers, Colton Gordon and his 37.1% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a difficult spot in this outing squaring off against 3 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Victor Caratini – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Victor Caratini are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Zack Littell.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Ranking 7th-steepest in the majors this year, Houston Astros bats jointly have notched a 16.1° launch angle on their highest exit velocity balls (a reliable metric to evaluate power ability).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Moneyline (-130)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 23 games at home (+10.10 Units / 34% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games (+10.90 Units / 25% ROI)
• Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Brandon Lowe has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.15 Units / 45% ROI)