Betting Odds and Bets for Braves vs Padres – 10/1/24

Atlanta Braves

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San Diego Padres

As the San Diego Padres and Atlanta Braves gear up for their National League Wild Card matchup on October 1, 2024, at Petco Park, the stakes are high for both teams. The Padres, coming off a tough 11-2 loss to the D-Backs on September 29, will look to rebound as they take on the Braves. The Braves, on the other hand, secured a 3-0 victory over the Mets in their last outing, showcasing their potential to make a deep playoff run.

On the mound, the Padres will start Michael King, a right-handed pitcher who ranks as the 19th-best starter in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. King’s impressive 2.95 ERA and 13-9 win-loss record highlight his capability, although his peripheral indicators suggest some regression might be on the horizon. The Braves will counter with AJ Smith-Shawver, who, despite a spotless 0.00 ERA from his lone start, is seen as one of the weaker pitchers in MLB. His xFIP of 5.15 suggests he’s been quite fortunate and could face challenges against the Padres’ potent lineup.

Offensively, the Padres boast the 6th-best offense in MLB, bolstered by the top team batting average and a strong showing in home runs. Jurickson Profar has been their standout hitter this season, while Xander Bogaerts has been hot over the last week. Meanwhile, the Braves’ offense ranks 12th overall, with significant power from Marcell Ozuna and a solid recent performance from Jorge Soler.

With a current moneyline of -180, the Padres enter as the favorites, bolstered by projections from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, which gives them a 66% chance of victory. While the Braves are considered underdogs, their ability to hit the long ball (4th in MLB) could prove pivotal in this high-stakes encounter. Expect a thrilling clash as both teams vie for postseason glory.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Atlanta Braves – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+165)
  AJ Smith-Shawver is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.5% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #3 HR venue among all major league stadiums in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Marcell Ozuna’s true offensive skill to be a .346, indicating that he has been lucky this year given the .046 gap between that figure and his actual .392 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (+165)
  The 4th-best projected offense of all teams today in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the Atlanta Braves.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Michael King – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  With 6 hitters who bat from the same side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Michael King should benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Donovan Solano – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Donovan Solano has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (67% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  The San Diego Padres bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-195)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 79 games (+17.00 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 95 of their last 154 games (+35.60 Units / 21% ROI)
• Orlando Arcia – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+900/-2500)
  Orlando Arcia has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 11 away games (+12.40 Units / 113% ROI)