Betting Odds and Bets for Braves vs Padres – 10/1/24

Atlanta Braves

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San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres are set to host the Atlanta Braves in a crucial National League Wild Card matchup on October 1, 2024, at Petco Park. The Padres, coming off a loss to the D-Backs, are favored in this series opener. With a projected win probability of 63%, according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, San Diego seems poised to capitalize on their home advantage.

Starting for the Padres is Michael King, who enters the game as the 18th best starting pitcher in MLB, according to Power Rankings. Despite an impressive season with a 2.95 ERA and a 13-9 record, his 3.50 xFIP suggests a bit of luck has been on his side. He is expected to pitch 4.9 innings, potentially allowing 1.8 earned runs and striking out six batters. His ability to minimize walks and hits will be critical against a Braves lineup ranked 4th in home runs but struggling with a 15th-place team batting average.

The Braves, despite their recent shutout victory over the Mets, are the underdogs with a moneyline of +150, indicating a 39% implied win probability. Bryce Elder, projected to pitch for Atlanta, has had a challenging season, posting a 6.52 ERA. However, his 3.95 xFIP suggests he might turn things around. Facing a potent Padres offense, ranked 1st in team batting average and 6th overall, Elder’s performance will be pivotal.

In terms of offense, the Padres have the edge with a lineup featuring Jurickson Profar and a hot-hitting Xander Bogaerts. The Braves will rely on Marcell Ozuna and Jorge Soler to spark some offensive magic. Both teams boast strong bullpens, with the Padres ranked 6th and the Braves 8th.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Atlanta Braves – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+145)
  Bryce Elder is an extreme groundball pitcher (49.2% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Petco Park — the #3 HR venue among all major league parks — today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Michael Harris II’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (+155)
  The 4th-best projected offense of all teams today in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the Atlanta Braves.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Michael King – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  With 6 hitters who bat from the same side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Michael King should benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Donovan Solano – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Donovan Solano has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (67% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  The San Diego Padres bullpen profiles as the 5th-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-175)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 79 games (+17.00 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-125/+105)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 95 of their last 154 games (+35.60 Units / 21% ROI)
• Orlando Arcia – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+850/-2200)
  Orlando Arcia has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 11 away games (+12.40 Units / 113% ROI)