Toronto Blue Jays
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Philadelphia Phillies
+180O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-210
(-110/-110)-210
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Jose Soriano – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-220/+165)Jose Soriano has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording 3.2 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Philadelphia Phillies Insights
- Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)Given his large platoon split, Zack Wheeler will benefit from being matched up with 6 hitters in the projected lineup who share his hand today.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Extreme groundball hitters like Kyle Schwarber usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Jose Soriano.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)Brandon Marsh has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards baseball’s 10th-shallowest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+4.40 Units / 16% ROI)
- Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-145/+110)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.25 Units / 36% ROI)
- Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (+130/-170)Zack Wheeler has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.45 Units / 51% ROI)