Review Orioles vs Twins Bets and Betting Trends – Saturday, September 28, 2024

Baltimore Orioles

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Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to host the Baltimore Orioles at Target Field on September 28, 2024, both teams are striving to end the season on a strong note. The Twins enter this matchup with an 82-78 record, reflecting an average season highlighted by a recent 5-2 win against the Orioles. On the other hand, the Orioles are showcasing a more successful run with an 89-71 record, yet they’re coming off a disappointing loss to these very Twins.

In this American League showdown, the Twins will start Zebby Matthews on the mound. Despite his 1-3 record and 5.71 ERA, Matthews’s underlying metrics, like a 3.94 xFIP, suggest that he may have been unlucky and could display better performance. The Twins will hope Matthews’s luck turns around against an Orioles lineup boasting the 6th-best offense in MLB, fueled by their 2nd-ranked power with 230 home runs this season. Matthews’s high-flyball tendencies could be a point of concern against such a powerful Orioles lineup.

The Orioles will counter with Albert Suarez, who possesses a good 3.74 ERA and an 8-7 record. However, with an xFIP of 4.51, Suarez might have benefited from fortune throughout the season. The Twins’ 11th-best offensive prowess, featuring Byron Buxton’s hot bat over the last week, could put pressure on Suarez, especially given their recent offensive output.

According to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, the Orioles hold a slight edge with a 51% win probability. Still, bettors might be tempted by the Twins at home, especially after a solid victory the previous night. In a high-scoring affair, the batters could steal the limelight as both pitching staffs look to minimize damage in this late-season clash.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Albert Suarez – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Albert Suarez has compiled an 18.8% Strikeout% this year, checking in at the 25th percentile.
  Explain: One of the best indicators of future strikeouts is past strikeouts.
• Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)
  Ryan O’Hearn is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 90% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles projected offense ranks as the 3rd-best of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Zebby Matthews – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Zebby Matthews has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 9.5 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Trevor Larnach – Over/Under Total Bases
  Trevor Larnach has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94.5-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 92.4-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  The Minnesota Twins bullpen profiles as the 8th-worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under Game Total
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 55 of their last 96 games (+15.80 Units / 15% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under Team Total
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 77 games (+16.20 Units / 18% ROI)
• Ramon Urias – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+165/-220)
  Ramon Urias has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+17.70 Units / 70% ROI)