Player Predictions Overview for Orioles vs Yankees – 9/24/2024

Baltimore Orioles

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New York Yankees

As the New York Yankees prepare to host the Baltimore Orioles on September 24, 2024, at Yankee Stadium, the stakes are high in this American League East matchup. The Yankees boast a strong 92-64 record, having already secured a playoff spot, while the Orioles are still in the hunt with an 86-70 record, looking to clinch a Wild Card berth.

On the mound for the Yankees will be Clarke Schmidt, who has been having an excellent season with a 2.37 ERA, although his 3.80 xFIP suggests he might be pitching above his expected level. Schmidt’s performance is pivotal, as he’s been ranked as the 52nd best starter in MLB. Meanwhile, the Orioles counter with Dean Kremer, a high-flyball pitcher with a 4.19 ERA. Kremer faces a daunting task against a Yankees lineup that leads the majors in home runs. This power could exploit Kremer’s flyball tendencies, providing a potential advantage to the Bronx Bombers.

Offensively, the Yankees have been one of the most potent teams, ranking 3rd in overall offense and 1st in home runs. Aaron Judge has been on a tear recently, with a .368 batting average and 1.328 OPS over his last seven games, further bolstering the Yankees’ lineup. The Orioles, while strong themselves, rank 6th in offense and 2nd in home runs, with Colton Cowser leading the charge with a .300 average and 1.014 OPS over the past week.

The Yankees enter this game as favorites with a -160 moneyline, suggesting a 59% implied win probability. The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, aligns with this, projecting the Yankees to score 4.85 runs on average, compared to the Orioles’ 4.27. With a high implied team total and a favorable matchup against Kremer, the Yankees are poised to take advantage and continue their winning ways as they head into the postseason.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Dean Kremer – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Dean Kremer has averaged 93.6 adjusted pitches per start this year, ranking in the 83rd percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  Ryan O’Hearn is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 93% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Anthony Santander pulls many of his flyballs (39.8% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 7th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• Clarke Schmidt – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Clarke Schmidt’s cutter percentage has spiked by 6.8% from last season to this one (28.2% to 35%) .
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Giancarlo Stanton – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Giancarlo Stanton has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 98.3-mph average to last season’s 95.2-mph average.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-155)
  The 2nd-best projected offense of the day in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the New York Yankees.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 64 of their last 110 games (+16.05 Units / 13% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under Team Total
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 50 of their last 79 games (+18.45 Units / 20% ROI)
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+900/-2500)
  Cedric Mullins has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 31 games (+20.50 Units / 66% ROI)