Injury Report for Blue Jays vs Rays – Sunday, September 22nd, 2024

Toronto Blue Jays

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Tampa Bay Rays

As the Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays face off on September 22, 2024, at Tropicana Field, fans can expect a closely contested matchup between two American League East rivals. The Rays, currently holding a 77-78 record, are having an average season, while the Blue Jays, with a 73-82 record, are experiencing a below-average year. Both teams are out of playoff contention, but the rivalry remains fierce.

On the mound, the Rays will start Shane Baz, a right-handed pitcher who has a solid 3.21 ERA over 12 starts this season. However, his xFIP of 4.49 suggests he may have been a bit fortunate, indicating potential regression. Baz is projected to pitch five innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, and striking out 4.5 batters on average. Despite his impressive ERA, Baz ranks 150th among MLB starting pitchers, making him below average overall.

The Blue Jays counter with Chris Bassitt, who has been a workhorse with 30 starts this season. Bassitt’s 4.16 ERA is above average, and he ranks 76th among MLB starters, highlighting his reliability. He’s projected to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, and striking out 5.9 batters on average.

Offensively, the Rays have struggled, ranking 28th in MLB this season. Their power numbers are particularly low, with a 27th ranking in home runs. In contrast, the Blue Jays are middle-of-the-pack, ranking 15th overall, though they also lack power, ranking 25th in home runs. The Rays’ Jonathan Aranda and the Blue Jays’ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have been hot at the plate recently, providing a spark for their respective lineups.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Rays a slight edge with a 51% win probability. With the Rays’ bullpen ranked 3rd in Power Rankings, compared to the Blue Jays’ 25th, Tampa Bay might have the upper hand in this tight contest.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Chris Bassitt – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Chris Bassitt’s four-seam fastball rate has fallen by 5% from last year to this one (9.3% to 4.3%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Alejandro Kirk – Over/Under Total Bases
  Alejandro Kirk has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 96.3-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 89.4-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Collectively, Toronto Blue Jays bats have performed well when assessing hitting balls in the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (between 23° and 34°), placing 3rd-best in baseball.
  Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Shane Baz – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Among all starters, Shane Baz’s fastball velocity of 95 mph ranks in the 86th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jose Siri – Over/Under Total Bases
  As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Jose Siri has suffered from bad luck this year. His .278 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .319.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen projects as the 3rd-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 91 of their last 152 games (+25.35 Units / 14% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 33 of their last 50 away games (+10.05 Units / 13% ROI)
• Shane Baz – Over/Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (+120/-150)
  Shane Baz has hit the Hits Allowed Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 81% ROI)