Royals vs Red Sox Match Preview and Winning Probability – Friday July 12, 2024

Kansas City Royals

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Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox are set to host the Kansas City Royals at Fenway Park on July 12, 2024, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup between two American League teams with above-average seasons. The Red Sox currently hold a 51-41 record, while the Royals are not far behind at 51-43.

Starting for the Red Sox will be right-hander Cooper Criswell, who has had a bit of an up-and-down season. With a 4.15 ERA and a 3.61 xERA, Criswell has shown signs of being better than his surface stats indicate. However, he’s projected to struggle in this outing, with forecasts suggesting he’ll allow 2.8 earned runs and only strike out 3.5 batters over 5.0 innings. This might be problematic against a Royals offense that ranks as the 14th-best in MLB.

On the opposite mound, Cole Ragans will start for the Royals. The left-hander has been excellent, boasting a 3.28 ERA and an even more impressive 2.75 FIP. Ragans is ranked as the 13th-best starting pitcher in MLB. He’s projected to go 5.6 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs and striking out 7.2 batters. This could pose a challenge for the Red Sox, who have the 3rd-highest strikeout rate in MLB.

Offensively, the Red Sox are a strong unit, ranking 6th in overall power rankings, 8th in batting average and home runs, and 6th in stolen bases. Jarren Duran has been their standout hitter, with a .278 batting average and .812 OPS over 92 games. Rafael Devers has been hot recently, hitting .304 with three homers in the past week.

The Royals, while not as potent, have a solid offensive squad. Bobby Witt Jr. leads the way with a .325 batting average and .931 OPS. He’s also been on fire lately, hitting .429 over the last seven games.

The betting markets project the game to be a close one, with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%. However, according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Royals have a 56% win probability, suggesting potential value for bettors looking to back Kansas City. With both bullpens ranking in the bottom tier (the Red Sox at 24th and the Royals at 22nd), this game could come down to which starting pitcher can best establish dominance early on.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Cole Ragans – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-170/+130)
  Cole Ragans has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 6.8 more adjusted pitches-per-start than average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Adam Frazier – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.255) may lead us to conclude that Adam Frazier has been unlucky this year with his .206 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 5th-least strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the Kansas City Royals with a 20.4% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Cooper Criswell – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Cooper Criswell’s high utilization percentage of his secondary pitches (72% this year) ought to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Ceddanne Rafaela – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  In the past week’s worth of games, Ceddanne Rafaela’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.9% up to 28.6%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox’ bullpen grades out as the 4th-worst among all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.25 Units / 27% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games (+7.00 Units / 25% ROI)
• Vinnie Pasquantino – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-115/-115)
  Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 36 games (+8.50 Units / 15% ROI)