Find Out How to Watch Rockies vs Dodgers – Friday, September 20th, 2024

Colorado Rockies

@

Los Angeles Dodgers

As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to take on the Colorado Rockies on September 20, 2024, at Dodger Stadium, the stakes are high for the Dodgers as they eye a strong finish to their impressive season. With a record of 91-62, they are having a banner year, unlike their division rivals, the Rockies, who are struggling at 59-94. This matchup is a classic National League West showdown, but only one team has any real postseason aspirations.

The Dodgers, fresh off a commanding 20-4 victory over the Miami Marlins, come in as massive favorites with a moneyline of -230 and an implied win probability of 68%. Their offensive firepower ranks 2nd in MLB, bolstered by stars like Shohei Ohtani, who boasts an impressive .294 batting average and 51 home runs this season. The Dodgers’ bats should have their way against Kyle Freeland, whose 4.89 ERA this season has been below average, although his 4.30 xFIP suggests some underlying misfortune.

Justin Wrobleski will take the mound for the Dodgers, facing a high-strikeout Colorado lineup. While Wrobleski’s 6.40 ERA paints a grim picture, a 5.40 xFIP indicates bad luck and potential for improvement. The Dodgers’ bullpen, ranked 12th, provides a reliable safety net for Wrobleski should he struggle early.

For the Rockies, Freeland’s task is daunting against a patient Dodgers lineup that ranks 3rd in drawing walks. Despite Freeland’s commendable control (5.7 BB%), the Dodgers’ ability to capitalize on mistakes could spell trouble for the southpaw. The Rockies’ offense, ranking 20th, will rely heavily on Brenton Doyle, who leads the team with a .264 batting average and 22 home runs.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Dodgers are poised to score 5.66 runs on average, while the Rockies are expected to put up 4.06 runs. With the Dodgers’ potent offense and favorable pitching matchup, they are well-positioned to extend their winning streak against a reeling Rockies squad.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Kyle Freeland – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Freeland to throw 84 pitches in this game (13th-least on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Michael Toglia – Over/Under Total Bases
  This season, Michael Toglia has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 96 mph compared to last year’s 91 mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The 8.4% Barrel% of the Colorado Rockies ranks them as the #10 group of hitters in the majors this year by this stat.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Justin Wrobleski – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Because of his reverse platoon split, Justin Wrobleski will be in a good position being matched up with 7 batters in the projected lineup of the opposite hand in today’s outing.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Miguel Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-210/+160)
  Miguel Rojas has been lucky this year, compiling a .334 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .284 — a .050 difference.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under Total Bases
  Max Muncy pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.3% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 8th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 82 games (+18.05 Units / 20% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 28 away games (+7.00 Units / 21% ROI)
• Tommy Edman – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+600/-1100)
  Tommy Edman has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games (+24.50 Units / 272% ROI)