Picks and Betting Line for Giants vs Brewers Wednesday, August 28, 2024

San Francisco Giants

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Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to host the San Francisco Giants on August 28, 2024, this matchup carries significant weight in the tight NL playoff race. The Brewers stand at 75-56, enjoying a solid season, while the Giants sit at 67-66, hovering just above .500. Both teams are vying for vital wins, especially as they face off for the second time in this series.

In their previous outing, the Brewers brought their A-game, bolstered by an outstanding performance from Freddy Peralta, who is projected to start again in this matchup. Peralta is ranked as the 28th best starting pitcher in MLB and has delivered a strong season with a 3.86 ERA. He is expected to average 5.5 innings pitched while allowing just 2.1 earned runs, which bodes well for the Brewers’ chances. This is particularly crucial given that the Giants are sending Kyle Harrison to the mound, a pitcher who has struggled with a 4.78 xERA, indicating that he might be due for a downturn after a somewhat fortuitous season.

Offensively, the Brewers rank 10th overall in MLB, with a stellar batting average placing them 5th in the league, though they struggle with home runs, sitting at 20th. In contrast, the Giants rank 15th in both overall and batting average, with their offense lagging significantly in the power department at 23rd in home runs and dead last in stolen bases.

With the projections favoring Milwaukee to score 4.68 runs against San Francisco’s 3.72, the Brewers are positioned as clear favorites in this contest. The leading MLB projection system even suggests a strong likelihood of a Brewers win, emphasizing their robust offensive capabilities against a Giants lineup that has lacked explosive production. As such, this game shapes up to be a significant opportunity for the Brewers to solidify their postseason aspirations.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Kyle Harrison – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+125/-165)
  Kyle Harrison projects for 2.2 walks in this outing, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Mike Yastrzemski is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Milwaukee (#1-best of all teams on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• The San Francisco Giants have 5 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Andrew Knapp, Grant McCray, Matt Chapman, Heliot Ramos, Tyler Fitzgerald).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Freddy Peralta’s curveball percentage has decreased by 7.3% from last year to this one (12.5% to 5.2%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Blake Perkins – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Blake Perkins has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (87% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The 7.2% Barrel% of the Milwaukee Brewers ranks them as the #26 squad in MLB this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 61 games at home (+12.35 Units / 19% ROI)
• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 62 of their last 110 games (+9.05 Units / 7% ROI)
• Tyler Fitzgerald – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Tyler Fitzgerald has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 42 games (+15.35 Units / 20% ROI)