Detailed Player Insights for Brewers vs Athletics – 8/25/2024

Milwaukee Brewers

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Oakland Athletics

As the Milwaukee Brewers face off against the Oakland Athletics on August 25, 2024, the stakes are particularly interesting given both teams’ contrasting seasons. The Brewers, holding a strong record of 75-54, are comfortably in contention for a playoff spot, while the Athletics, at 55-75, are struggling and have been eliminated from the division race.

In their last matchup on August 24, the Brewers secured a decisive 9-5 victory over the Athletics, highlighting the Brewers’ offensive prowess. The Athletics have had a tough season, ranking 21st in overall offense and 27th in team batting average, which suggests they have struggled to consistently generate runs. However, they do rank 4th in team home runs, indicating some potential for power.

Starting for the Athletics is Joey Estes, who has had an up-and-down year with a 5-6 record and a 4.44 ERA. Despite his struggles, he pitched well in his last outing, going 8 innings with just 1 earned run. On the opposing side, the Brewers will counter with Frankie Montas, who has an average ERA of 4.57 and has been effective in limiting earned runs, as evidenced by his last start where he threw 7 scoreless innings.

The projections suggest a close game, with the Athletics potentially offering betting value due to their current moneyline of +125, which implies a 43% win probability. Meanwhile, the Brewers are favored at -150, reflecting a 57% chance of victory, though the projections indicate the Athletics could be better than their odds suggest. Given the Brewers’ strong offensive ranking—10th in MLB—and their ability to capitalize on the Athletics’ pitching weaknesses, they will look to continue their winning momentum in this pivotal interleague matchup.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Frankie Montas – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Frankie Montas will have the handedness advantage against 6 opposing bats today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jake Bauers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  The Oakland Athletics have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jake Bauers has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• It may be sensible to expect negative regression for the Milwaukee Brewers offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• Joey Estes – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Joey Estes’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (2292 rpm) has been significantly lower than than his seasonal rate (2375 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  J.J. Bleday is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Milwaukee (#3-best on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Oakland Athletics – 2H Moneyline
  The Oakland Athletics bullpen projects as the 9th-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Oakland Athletics – Moneyline (+125)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 34 games (+10.15 Units / 27% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 56 of their last 106 games (+9.20 Units / 8% ROI)
• Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+530/-950)
  Lawrence Butler has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 38 games (+12.65 Units / 33% ROI)