
Los Angeles Angels
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Seattle Mariners
+135O/U: 7
(-115/-105)-160
(-115/-105)-160
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Ryan Johnson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)With 7 bats who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Ryan Johnson will have a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Denzer Guzman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)Denzer Guzman is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Los Angeles Angels – 2H MoneylineThe Los Angeles Angels bullpen grades out as the 10th-worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Kade Anderson – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)Among all starters, Kade Anderson’s fastball spin rate of 2039 rpm ranks in the 9th percentile this year.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Josh Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+590/-1100)Josh Naylor has performed at a clip of 28.9 stolen bases per 600 plate appearances this year, ranking in the 93rd percentile for base-stealing.Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
- Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (43.5% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-115/-105)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 23 games at home (+4.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- Los Angeles Angels – Run Line +1.5 (-160)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 15 of their last 20 away games (+9.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Mike Trout – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+105/-135)Mike Trout has hit the Walks Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.50 Units / 54% ROI)
