Boxscore for D-Backs vs Padres - 9/25/26 - WriteNow™ by EV Analytics

-110O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-110

Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
Brandon Pfaadt projects to average 17.4 outs in this outing, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
Pavin Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)
Pavin Smith has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (53% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this matchup.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
Lars Nootbaar hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Jake Cronenworth – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
Jake Cronenworth may have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.
Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
It may be sensible to expect worse numbers for the San Diego Padres offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 10th-luckiest offense in MLB this year.
Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-110)
The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 17 games (+13.45 Units / 49% ROI)
Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 23 away games (+6.25 Units / 25% ROI)
Manny Machado – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)
Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+11.30 Units / 62% ROI)

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