Boxscore for Marlins vs Cubs – 9/23/26

Miami Marlins

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Chicago Cubs

Miami Marlins Insights

• Ryan Gusto – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Ryan Gusto has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 8.4 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Heriberto Hernandez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Heriberto Hernandez has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.2-mph average to last year’s 93.6-mph EV.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  The Miami Marlins bullpen ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-180)
  Given the 0.7 gap between Kevin Gausman’s 4.55 ERA and his 3.85 FIP, it’s safe to say he’s been one of the least fortunate pitchers in Major League Baseball this year and figures to see better results going forward.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong has been lucky this year, putting up a .399 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .349 — a .050 difference.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.8% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by the league’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+9.30 Units / 17% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 23 games (+10.50 Units / 41% ROI)