TV Channel Information for Blue Jays vs Orioles – Tuesday September 22, 2026

Toronto Blue Jays

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Baltimore Orioles

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Max Scherzer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  With a 1.28 deviation between Max Scherzer’s 6.69 K/9 and his 7.97 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the game this year when it comes to strikeouts and should see positive regression the rest of the season.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Sean Keys – Over/Under Hits
  Sean Keys is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen projects as the 2nd-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Chris Bassitt – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Chris Bassitt’s 91.7-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 20th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Pete Alonso has seen a big gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 97.6-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 93.9-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Coby Mayo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Coby Mayo pulls many of his flyballs (40.5% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 4th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 35 games at home (+5.55 Units / 14% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 30 games (+4.80 Units / 13% ROI)
• Kazuma Okamoto – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Kazuma Okamoto has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+8.50 Units / 26% ROI)