Follow Live Updates on Brewers vs Orioles – Sunday, September 20th, 2026

Milwaukee Brewers

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Baltimore Orioles

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Jacob Misiorowski – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Jacob Misiorowski has averaged 17.8 outs per game per started this year, grading out in the 94th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Garrett Mitchell – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Garrett Mitchell has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.4-mph to 99.2-mph in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Milwaukee Brewers – 2H Moneyline
  The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen grades out as the 6th-best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Brandon Young – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Brandon Young’s higher utilization percentage of his fastball this season (54.2 vs. 43.8% last year) is not ideal since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Christian Encarnacion-Strand – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Christian Encarnacion-Strand’s true offensive talent to be a .307, suggesting that he has been lucky this year given the .046 difference between that figure and his actual .353 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Coby Mayo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Coby Mayo pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.2% — 97th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 4th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+135/-170)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+5.30 Units / 21% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-270)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 35 games (+9.35 Units / 17% ROI)
• William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  William Contreras has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+13.00 Units / 52% ROI)