Read the Boxscore for Phillies vs Mets - Thursday September 17th, 2026

+115O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-140

Aaron Nola – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
In his previous game started, Aaron Nola was firing on all cylinders and put up 7 strikeouts.
Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
Brandon Marsh has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (59% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 2nd-least strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the Philadelphia Phillies with a 19.3% underlying K%.
Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Nolan McLean – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
Nolan McLean has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 4.3 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.
Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Francisco Alvarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
Francisco Alvarez has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 94.9-mph average in the past two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 90.4-mph average.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
The New York Mets bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

New York Mets – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-145)
The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 30 games at home (+11.10 Units / 31% ROI)
Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 35 games (+5.70 Units / 15% ROI)

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