Read the Boxscore for Phillies vs Mets – Thursday September 17th, 2026

Philadelphia Phillies

@

New York Mets

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Aaron Nola – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  In his previous game started, Aaron Nola was firing on all cylinders and put up 7 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Brandon Marsh has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (58% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 2nd-least strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the Philadelphia Phillies with a 19.4% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

New York Mets Insights

• Nolan McLean – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
  Nolan McLean has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 4.3 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Jared Young – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Jared Young has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 94.6-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 90-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Mets bullpen projects as the 5th-worst in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 30 games at home (+11.10 Units / 31% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 35 games (+5.70 Units / 15% ROI)
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-110/-120)
  Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+9.20 Units / 30% ROI)