Expert Player Predictions for Brewers vs Pirates - Thursday, September 17, 2026

-135O/U: 8.5
(-120/+100)+115

Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)
Kyle Harrison is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.4% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #26 HR venue in the league in this matchup.
Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Luis Lara – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-240/+180)
Luis Lara is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
Brice Turang – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
Brice Turang has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.3%) and will be challenged by the game’s 10th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Wilber Dotel – Over/Under 1.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
Wilber Dotel has experienced some positive variance in regards to his strikeouts this year, putting up a 9.17 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 7.70 — a 1.47 K/9 discrepancy.
Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Jared Triolo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
Jared Triolo has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.3-mph dropping to 80-mph in the last week.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the most strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Pittsburgh Pirates with a 26.1% underlying K%.
Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games (+8.95 Units / 19% ROI)
Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)
The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 40 games (+13.15 Units / 21% ROI)
Joey Ortiz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)
Joey Ortiz has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+14.75 Units / 36% ROI)

WriteNow™ by EV Analytics