
Chicago Cubs
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Miami Marlins
-145O/U: 8
(-110/-110)+125
(-110/-110)+125
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-145)Among every team on the slate today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the Chicago Cubs.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Pedro Ramirez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)Pedro Ramirez is an extreme groundball hitter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Miami (#2-best on the slate).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Chicago Cubs – 2H MoneylineThe Chicago Cubs bullpen grades out as the 7th-worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Tyler Phillips – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)Compared to average, Tyler Phillips has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an -16.0 fewer adjusted pitches each game.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- Griffin Conine – Over/Under Total BasesGriffin Conine will have the handedness advantage against Clay Holmes in today’s matchup.Explain: Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Heriberto Hernandez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+160/-210)Today, Heriberto Hernandez is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 9th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37.6% rate (93rd percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
