Live Stream for Tigers vs Guardians Game - Sunday, September 6, 2026

+145O/U: 7
(+100/-120)-165

Jackson Jobe – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
Jackson Jobe’s higher utilization percentage of his fastball this year (52.3 vs. 44.2% last year) is not ideal since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
Hao-Yu Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
Hao Yu Lee has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 93.6-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 89.7-mph EV.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
The Detroit Tigers have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Ben Malgeri, Riley Greene, John Peck).
Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Gavin Williams – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
Out of all starters, Gavin Williams’s fastball velocity of 96.9 mph grades out in the 91st percentile this year.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Jo Adell – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jo Adell’s true offensive skill to be a .326, suggesting that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .024 deviation between that mark and his actual .302 wOBA.
Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
The Cleveland Guardians bullpen grades out as the 4th-best in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.60 Units / 24% ROI)
Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.35 Units / 27% ROI)
Riley Greene – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+165/-215)
Riley Greene has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+9.20 Units / 34% ROI)

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