Check Out the Top Player Prop Picks for Angels vs Pirates – Saturday, September 05, 2026

Los Angeles Angels

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Yusei Kikuchi – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Yusei Kikuchi has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 5.4 more adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Christian Moore – Over/Under Total Bases
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (7.6) suggests that Christian Moore has been lucky since the start of last season with his 19.0 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Los Angeles Angels have 5 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Zach Neto, Mike Trout, Christian Moore, Oswald Peraza, Jose Siri).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Braxton Ashcraft – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  With 6 bats of the same handedness in the opposing team’s projected offense, Braxton Ashcraft ought to benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jared Triolo – Over/Under Hits
  Jared Triolo is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 89% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Pittsburgh Pirates bats as a group rank 5th- in the majors for power this year when using their 92.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.