Picks and Betting Line for Tigers vs Cubs Wednesday, August 21, 2024

Detroit Tigers

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Detroit Tigers on August 21, 2024, both teams are looking to gain momentum in a tight series. The Cubs currently sit at 62-64, having just secured a 3-1 victory over the Tigers, who hold a record of 61-65 and are struggling with a subpar season. This matchup is crucial for both teams, as they try to build on their recent performances.

Jameson Taillon, projected to start for the Cubs, is having an average season, with a Win/Loss record of 8-7 and a solid ERA of 3.62. However, his 4.17 xFIP indicates he may have been a bit fortunate this year, suggesting potential regression. Taillon’s average projection of 5.3 innings pitched with 2.2 earned runs allowed points to a reliable outing, though his tendency to allow 4.8 hits and 1.3 walks per game could put him in a tough spot against the Tigers’ lineup.

On the other hand, Beau Brieske will take the mound for Detroit. While he has shown some promise, his last start was abbreviated, going just 1 inning with 1 earned run. His ERA of 4.43 is average, but the projections indicate he may perform better moving forward, despite a poor average of 1.6 strikeouts per game.

Offensively, the Cubs rank 21st in MLB, while the Tigers are even further behind at 26th. This disparity could play a crucial role in the outcome of the game. Ian Happ remains the Cubs’ best hitter, boasting a .792 OPS, and has been performing well recently. Meanwhile, Riley Greene leads the Tigers with an OPS of .825, but the overall lack of offensive firepower from both teams makes this matchup one to watch closely.

With a Game Total set at 7.5 runs, the projections suggest a low-scoring affair. The Cubs’ current moneyline of -135 reflects their slight edge, but with both teams struggling, anything can happen in this pivotal contest.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Beau Brieske will “start” for Detroit Tigers in today’s matchup but will function as an opener and may not last more than a couple frames.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+130)
  Based on Statcast metrics, Spencer Torkelson ranks in the 0th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .169.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Beau Brieske – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Jake Rogers, the Tigers’s expected catcher today, projects as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Jameson Taillon – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Jameson Taillon has relied on his non-fastballs 5.2% more often this year (60.6%) than he did last season (55.4%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Isaac Paredes has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 5.2% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the last week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago Cubs bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 48 games at home (+10.50 Units / 19% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Run Line +1.5 (-190)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 32 of their last 50 games (+12.60 Units / 18% ROI)
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+125/-160)
  Isaac Paredes has hit the Singles Under in 38 of his last 46 games (+25.50 Units / 36% ROI)