Player Prop Picks for Pirates vs Cardinals – 8/30/2026

Pittsburgh Pirates

@

St. Louis Cardinals

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Braxton Ashcraft – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Braxton Ashcraft’s 96.6-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 88th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jared Triolo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Jared Triolo has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.7-mph dropping to 82.3-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Henry Davis – Over/Under Total Bases
  Henry Davis pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.8% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 7th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Matthew Liberatore – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Matthew Liberatore is projected to throw 85 pitches in today’s outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 11th-least on the slate today.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• The St. Louis Cardinals have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Nolan Gorman, Joshua Baez, Pedro Pages).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+7.65 Units / 35% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 away games (+6.55 Units / 33% ROI)
• Matthew Liberatore – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Matthew Liberatore has hit the Strikeouts Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.80 Units / 62% ROI)