D-Backs vs Giants Expert Picks and Betting Tips - Friday August 28, 2026

-125O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)+105

Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
Kohl Drake is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.7% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #28 HR venue in the league in today’s game.
Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Nolan Arenado – Over/Under Total Bases
Nolan Arenado has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 6.7% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the past 14 days.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
Corbin Carroll pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.8% — 85th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
Blade Tidwell has been lucky this year, compiling a 3.58 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.31 — a 0.73 discrepancy.
Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Rafael Devers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Rafael Devers can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
The underlying talent of the San Francisco Giants projected batting order today (.291 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a good deal worse than their .308 wOBA this year.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games at home (+10.85 Units / 57% ROI)
Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 40 away games (+10.95 Units / 23% ROI)
Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
Lars Nootbaar has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+11.65 Units / 35% ROI)

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