
Minnesota Twins
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Athletics
-150O/U: 9.5
(-115/-105)+130
(-115/-105)+130
Minnesota Twins Insights
- Taj Bradley – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)Taj Bradley has relied on his curveball 5.6% less often this year (9.2%) than he did last season (14.8%).Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
- Kody Clemens – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Kody Clemens has seen a big increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 94.5-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 92.3-mph average.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Rating 4th-steepest in Major League Baseball since the start of last season, Minnesota Twins hitters collectively have notched a 15.6° launch angle on their hardest-contacted balls (a reliable standard to study power skills).Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.
Athletics Insights
- Athletics – Moneyline (+130)Among all the teams today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the Athletics.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Donovan Walton – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Donovan Walton’s true offensive ability to be a .289, providing some evidence that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .074 deviation between that figure and his actual .363 wOBA.Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Athletics – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Athletics’ bullpen ranks as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-115/-105)The Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 24 games (+5.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.85 Units / 31% ROI)
- Byron Buxton – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+115/-145)Byron Buxton has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.15 Units / 46% ROI)
