Weather for Cardinals vs Cubs Game - 8/16/26 - WriteNow™ by EV Analytics

+140O/U: 9
(+100/-120)-160

Alec Burleson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
Alec Burleson has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.6-mph average to last year’s 92.6-mph EV.
Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
JJ Wetherholt – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
JJ Wetherholt has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the game’s 7th-shallowest LF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 12.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Edward Cabrera to have a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 79 pitches.
Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Pete Crow-Armstrong’s true offensive talent to be a .340, indicating that he has been very fortunate this year given the .051 gap between that mark and his actual .391 wOBA.
Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-160)
The Chicago Cubs projected batting order grades out as the 3rd-best on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability.
Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

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