Boston Red Sox
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Toronto Blue Jays
-160O/U: 8
(-110/-110)+140
(-110/-110)+140
Boston Red Sox Insights
- Payton Tolle – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Payton Tolle has a reverse platoon split and has the benefit of facing 6 opposite-handed hitters in today’s game.Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Jarren Duran – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)Jarren Duran has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (67% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup in today’s game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Boston Red Sox – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox’ bullpen profiles as the 6th-best out of all MLB teams.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (+140)The Toronto Blue Jays infield defense profiles as the 3rd-best among all the teams in action today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Alejandro Kirk – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+175/-230)Alejandro Kirk has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.9%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 11th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.