Check Out Picks and Betting Guide for Reds vs Nationals – 8/09/26

Cincinnati Reds

@

Washington Nationals

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Brady Singer has averaged 93.4 adjusted pitches per outing this year, ranking in the 84th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• JJ Bleday – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Washington’s #2-ranked outfield defense on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for JJ Bleday, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Matt McLain, Tyler Stephenson, Eugenio Suarez).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Washington Nationals Insights

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  Brad Lord will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against 6 opposing batters today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Keibert Ruiz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Keibert Ruiz has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (88% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  The Washington Nationals bullpen ranks as the worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.