Find the Best Blue Jays vs Nationals Picks and Odds – 7/28/2026

Toronto Blue Jays

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Washington Nationals

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Shane Bieber – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Shane Bieber projects to average 16.4 outs in this outing, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Yohendrick Pinango – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Yohendrick Pinango has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96.3-mph average in the last week’s worth of games to his seasonal 90.8-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The 6.4% Barrel% of the Toronto Blue Jays makes them the #29 team in baseball this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Cade Cavalli – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Cade Cavalli has been lucky in regards to his strikeouts this year, posting a 10.33 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 9.45 — a 0.88 K/9 discrepancy.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• CJ Abrams – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates CJ Abrams’s true offensive talent to be a .338, indicating that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .057 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .395 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• CJ Abrams – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  CJ Abrams pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.5% — 85th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-120)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 45 games at home (+6.05 Units / 11% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.05 Units / 42% ROI)
• Dylan Crews – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+110/-140)
  Dylan Crews has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+9.05 Units / 36% ROI)