Updated Player Rankings for D-Backs vs Pirates - July 28th, 2026

-110O/U: 9
(-120/+100)-110

Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Brandon Pfaadt will concede an average of 3.27 earned runs in this outing.
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
Corbin Carroll has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.4-mph to 95.8-mph over the last week.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen ranks as the 5th-best in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Bubba Chandler – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
Bubba Chandler’s high utilization percentage of his fastball (54.9% this year) is likely dampening his results, since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
Jake Mangum – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+160/-205)
Arizona’s #1-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Jake Mangum, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
Ryan O’Hearn has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 10th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 40 games at home (+13.15 Units / 30% ROI)
Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 40 games (+7.85 Units / 18% ROI)
Esmerlyn Valdez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
Esmerlyn Valdez has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+9.05 Units / 32% ROI)

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