Updated Player Rankings for D-Backs vs Pirates – July 28th, 2026

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Pittsburgh Pirates

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Brandon Pfaadt will concede an average of 3.24 earned runs in this outing.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Corbin Carroll has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.3-mph to 95.4-mph over the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen ranks as the 3rd-best in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Bubba Chandler – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-175/+135)
  With 6 bats who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Bubba Chandler will not have the upper hand while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Esmerlyn Valdez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Esmerlyn Valdez’s true offensive skill to be a .332, providing some evidence that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .105 gap between that figure and his actual .437 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Henry Davis – Over/Under Total Bases
  In today’s game, Henry Davis is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 39% rate (96th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.