Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for Reds vs Cardinals – Sunday, July 26th, 2026

Cincinnati Reds

@

St. Louis Cardinals

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Andrew Abbott – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Andrew Abbott’s slider usage has jumped by 6.3% from last season to this one (13.9% to 20.2%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Dane Myers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Dane Myers hits many of his flyballs to center field (41.2% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Kyle Leahy – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Kyle Leahy’s fastball spin rate has dropped 196 rpm this season (2178 rpm) below where it was last year (2374 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Nelson Velazquez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Nelson Velazquez has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (94% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• It may be wise to expect improved performance for the St. Louis Cardinals offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 10th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.60 Units / 41% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 30 games (+4.95 Units / 15% ROI)
• Ke’Bryan Hayes – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 away games (+9.45 Units / 38% ROI)