Discover the Reds vs Mariners Game Time - July 21, 2026

+100O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-120

Chase Burns – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
Out of all SPs, Chase Burns’s fastball spin rate of 2615 rpm grades out in the 97th percentile this year.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
Elly De La Cruz has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.9-mph average to last year’s 90.7-mph mark.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
Eugenio Suarez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.9% — 96th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Luis Castillo – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
Compared to the average pitcher, Luis Castillo has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an additional 5.5 adjusted pitches each game.
Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Cal Raleigh’s true offensive skill to be a .346, indicating that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .087 disparity between that mark and his actual .259 wOBA.
Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
Luis Castillo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
Cal Raleigh, the Mariners’s expected catcher in today’s matchup, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Seattle Mariners – Moneyline (-120)
The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 23 games at home (+9.05 Units / 26% ROI)
Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 30 away games (+8.95 Units / 27% ROI)
Josh Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+7.10 Units / 14% ROI)

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