Read the Prediction and Game Breakdown for Mets vs Brewers Match Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

New York Mets

@

Milwaukee Brewers

New York Mets Insights

• Zach Thornton – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Zachary Thornton’s 86.2-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 0th percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Brett Baty – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Milwaukee’s #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Brett Baty, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• New York’s 89.3-mph average exit velocity this year is among the best in the league: #6 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Brandon Sproat – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
  Brandon Sproat has averaged 14 outs per GS this year, ranking in the 15th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Jackson Chourio’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.8% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Jackson Chourio hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Run Line -1.5 (+155)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Run Line in 13 of their last 23 games at home (+6.30 Units / 26% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.80 Units / 45% ROI)
• A.J. Ewing – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  A.J. Ewing has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.60 Units / 36% ROI)