Watch the Padres vs Braves Game Highlights – July 21st, 2026

San Diego Padres

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Atlanta Braves

San Diego Padres Insights

• Walker Buehler – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Walker Buehler’s fastball spin rate of 2164 rpm grades out in the 22nd percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Gavin Sheets – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Gavin Sheets’s average exit velocity has declined of late; his 88-mph seasonal EV has fallen to 78.8-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Reynaldo Lopez – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-185/+140)
  Generating 14.5 outs per GS this year on average, Reynaldo Lopez places him the 20th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Austin Riley – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Austin Riley’s true offensive skill to be a .337, suggesting that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .046 disparity between that mark and his actual .291 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Collectively, Atlanta Braves bats have not performed well as far as hitting balls in the launch angle band that tends to optimize base hits (between -4° and 26°), rating 4th-worst in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Betting Trends

• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 23 games at home (+8.05 Units / 30% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.70 Units / 26% ROI)
• Gavin Sheets – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Gavin Sheets has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 10 games (+11.15 Units / 77% ROI)