
Chicago Cubs
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Baltimore Orioles
-115O/U: 9.5
(+100/-120)-105
(+100/-120)-105
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Matthew Boyd – Over/Under Pitching OutsTallying 14.4 outs per start this year on average, Matthew Boyd ranks in the 21st percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)Nico Hoerner is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Seiya Suzuki hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB’s 4th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Shane Baz – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)Shane Baz’s curveball usage has jumped by 6.3% from last year to this one (26.9% to 33.2%) .Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Coby Mayo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Coby Mayo has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.8-mph to 97.3-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The Baltimore Orioles have 4 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Coby Mayo, Blaze Alexander, Jackson Holliday, Tyler O’Neill).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team TotalThe Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+5.25 Units / 50% ROI)
- Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 22 games (+6.45 Units / 21% ROI)
