Get the Winning Probability and Match Preview for Angels vs Mariners – Monday, June 29, 2026

Los Angeles Angels

@

Seattle Mariners

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Ryan Johnson – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+115/-145)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Johnson to throw 84 pitches today (6th-least on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Denzer Guzman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Denzer Guzman has had some very good luck with with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .305 figure is a good deal higher than his .188 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• The Los Angeles Angels have 4 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Josh Lowe, Logan O’Hoppe, Jorge Soler, Zach Neto).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Seattle Mariners Insights

• George Kirby – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  George Kirby’s sinker percentage has dropped by 6.4% from last season to this one (26.9% to 20.5%) .
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Cal Raleigh has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (98% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Seattle’s 92.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs ranks them as the #8 team in Major League Baseball this year by this standard.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Betting Trends

• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 40 games (+10.60 Units / 23% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 35 games (+5.35 Units / 13% ROI)
• Cole Young – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+115/-145)
  Cole Young has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+7.75 Units / 27% ROI)