
Minnesota Twins
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Houston Astros
+115O/U: 9
(-105/-115)-135
(-105/-115)-135
Minnesota Twins Insights
- Zebby Matthews – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)Generating 18.5 outs per start this year on average, Zebby Matthews ranks in the 94th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Luke Keaschall – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Luke Keaschall’s average exit velocity has fallen off lately; his 84.4-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 77.9-mph in the last 7 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Minnesota’s 88.4-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in the league: #23 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Houston Astros Insights
- Peter Lambert – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)Peter Lambert has a reverse platoon split and should be helped facing 6 opposite-handed batters in today’s game.Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (47.5% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Houston Astros – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team TotalThe Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+4.80 Units / 21% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-105/-115)The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 45 games (+9.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- Josh Bell – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 25 games (+16.45 Units / 33% ROI)
