Reds vs Pirates Matchup Preview and Score Prediction – 6/27/2026

Cincinnati Reds

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Chase Burns – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-175/+135)
  With 6 bats of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected offense, Chase Burns will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Matt McLain has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.6-mph to 97.6-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 4 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Eugenio Suarez, Tyler Stephenson, Matt McLain).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Jared Jones – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Jared Jones’s 98.1-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 99th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Endy Rodriguez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Endy Rodriguez’s true offensive talent to be a .305, indicating that he has been very fortunate this year given the .068 difference between that figure and his actual .373 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen ranks as the 10th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.