
Miami Marlins
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Philadelphia Phillies
+155O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-180
(-110/-110)-180
Miami Marlins Insights
- Tyler Phillips – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)The Philadelphia Phillies have 6 bats in the projected lineup that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tyler Phillips today.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Jakob Marsee – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)Jakob Marsee has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (65% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in today’s game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- The 6.5% Barrel% of the Miami Marlins makes them the #28 group of hitters in baseball this year by this metric.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Philadelphia Phillies Insights
- Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)Among all starting pitchers, Jesus Luzardo’s fastball velocity of 96.4 mph ranks in the 90th percentile this year.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Edmundo Sosa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Edmundo Sosa has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.5-mph average to last season’s 90.8-mph figure.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)Brandon Marsh has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-180)The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- Miami Marlins – Run Line +1.5 (-135)The Miami Marlins have hit the Run Line in 10 of their last 13 games (+8.95 Units / 48% ROI)
- Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-145/+110)Brandon Marsh has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+9.40 Units / 39% ROI)
