
New York Yankees
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Toronto Blue Jays
-135O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)+115
(-110/-110)+115
New York Yankees Insights
- Will Warren – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Will Warren has gone to his sinker 5.3% more often this year (26.2%) than he did last season (20.9%).Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)Cody Bellinger has a good chance to have the upper hand against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the Toronto Blue Jays only has 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- The underlying talent of the New York Yankees projected batting order today (.317 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount weaker than their .331 wOBA this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Patrick Corbin – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Patrick Corbin’s 2138.3-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season ranks in the 18th percentile out of all starters.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Alejandro Kirk – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alejandro Kirk in the 96th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
- Toronto Blue Jays – 2H MoneylineThe Toronto Blue Jays bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 45 games at home (+5.80 Units / 11% ROI)
- New York Yankees – Moneyline (-135)The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.55 Units / 39% ROI)
- Kazuma Okamoto – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+110/-140)Kazuma Okamoto has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+9.25 Units / 34% ROI)
