
Boston Red Sox
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New York Yankees
+110O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-130
(-110/-110)-130
Boston Red Sox Insights
- Ranger Suarez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)Ranger Suarez’s fastball spin rate has jumped 106 rpm this year (2057 rpm) over where it was last year (1951 rpm).Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
- Ceddanne Rafaela – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)Ceddanne Rafaela has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (55% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- The Boston Red Sox (20.6 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 5th-least strikeout-prone set of hitters of all teams on the slate.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
New York Yankees Insights
- Will Warren – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Will Warren will rack up an average of 5.3 strikeouts in this matchup.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
- Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Anthony Volpe’s average exit velocity has declined recently; his 84.4-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 75.2-mph in the last 7 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- New York Yankees hitters collectively grade out in MLB for power this year when judging by their 10.9% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- New York Yankees – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-145)The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games at home (+2.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (+110)The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 away games (+6.70 Units / 26% ROI)
- Marcelo Mayer – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)Marcelo Mayer has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+7.30 Units / 23% ROI)
