Discover Current Player Trends for Cardinals vs Reds – 5/23/26

St. Louis Cardinals

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Cincinnati Reds

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Nolan Gorman has strong power (95th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (31.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Chase Petty is a pitch-to-contact type (7th percentile K%) — great news for Gorman.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• The St. Louis Cardinals have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Pedro Pages, Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Chase Petty – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Chase Petty has been given a below-average leash since the start of last season, throwing 8.5 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Elly De La Cruz has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.6-mph average to last season’s 90.7-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds’ bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst among all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 19 games at home (+10.35 Units / 49% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Run Line -1.0 (+120)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 15 of their last 21 away games (+7.75 Units / 24% ROI)
• Jordan Walker – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+115/-150)
  Jordan Walker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+8.50 Units / 29% ROI)