Recommended Player Prop Bets for Brewers vs Cardinals - Monday May 04, 2026

-130O/U: 9
(-110/-110)+110

Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
Chad Patrick is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.2% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #30 HR venue among all stadiums today.
Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Luis Rengifo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
Luis Rengifo has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (52% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the lineup in today’s game.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
Jackson Chourio hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Kyle Leahy – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
With 6 bats of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Kyle Leahy has a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
Jordan Walker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
Jordan Walker has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 95.8-mph to 100.7-mph over the last 7 days.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
The St. Louis Cardinals have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Pedro Pages, Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker).
Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (+110)
The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 23 games (+7.85 Units / 34% ROI)
Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 23 away games (+4.25 Units / 17% ROI)
Jordan Walker – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+380/-580)
Jordan Walker has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+10.30 Units / 258% ROI)

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