Read the Game Recap for Phillies vs Marlins - May 3rd, 2026

-140O/U: 8
(-110/-110)+120

Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)
Jesus Luzardo has recorded a 3.84 K/BB rate since the start of last season, grading out in the 86th percentile.
Explain: K/BB rate is one of the best measures of a pitcher’s effectiveness in a given season, regardless of his ERA (which is prone to extreme randomness and luck).
Alec Bohm – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
When it comes to his batting average, Alec Bohm has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His .263 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .291.
Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Chris Paddack – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Chris Paddack will ring up an average of 4 strikeouts in today’s outing.
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
Connor Norby – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
Connor Norby has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (79% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today’s game.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
Christopher Morel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
Christopher Morel pulls many of his flyballs (40.2% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)
The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 15 games (+6.50 Units / 37% ROI)
Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 50 away games (+10.30 Units / 18% ROI)
Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
Xavier Edwards has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+6.75 Units / 23% ROI)

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