Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for Guardians vs Athletics – Saturday, May 2nd, 2026

Cleveland Guardians

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Athletics

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Slade Cecconi – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Slade Cecconi’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.4 mph this season (92.3 mph) below where it was last season (93.7 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Steven Kwan – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  There has been a decrease in Steven Kwan’s average exit velocity this year, from 86.3 mph last year to 82.1 mph now
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Jose Ramirez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.5% — 99th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 6th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Athletics Insights

• Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)
  Jacob Lopez is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.3% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #9 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Carlos Cortes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Carlos Cortes’s true offensive talent to be a .312, implying that he has been very fortunate this year given the .165 deviation between that mark and his actual .477 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Athletics – Moneyline (-140)
  The Athletics projected offense grades out as the 4th-strongest of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-115)
  The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 59% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 25 away games (+8.85 Units / 33% ROI)
• Rhys Hoskins – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-105/-125)
  Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+7.75 Units / 52% ROI)