Discover the Phillies vs Marlins Preview and Prediction - Friday May 01, 2026

-110O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-110

Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Zack Wheeler has relied on his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 58% of the time, placing in the 100th percentile.
Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
Justin Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
Extreme flyball bats like Justin Crawford are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Eury Perez.
Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
Kyle Schwarber pulls many of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 4th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Eury Perez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
Eury Perez’s 2640-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 100th percentile among all starters.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Agustin Ramirez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
Agustin Ramirez has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (86% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this game.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
The Miami Marlins have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Stowers, Owen Caissie, Christopher Morel).
Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Miami Marlins – Moneyline (-110)
The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 45 games (+9.05 Units / 17% ROI)
Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.45 Units / 34% ROI)
Alec Bohm – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+12.80 Units / 38% ROI)

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