Starting Lineup for Royals vs Athletics - April 28, 2026

-115O/U: 9.5
(-105/-115)-105

Kris Bubic – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
Kris Bubic has averaged 96.8 adjusted pitches per GS this year, ranking in the 94th percentile.
Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
Typically, hitters like Salvador Perez who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Aaron Civale.
Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Aaron Civale – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
Aaron Civale has a reverse platoon split and is fortunate enough to be facing 6 opposite-handed batters in this matchup.
Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
Colby Thomas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+145)
Colby Thomas has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (100% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Athletics – 2H Moneyline
The Athletics bullpen projects as the 5th-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Athletics – Moneyline (-105)
The Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games (+7.00 Units / 30% ROI)
Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in their last 6 games (+6.25 Units / 91% ROI)
Salvador Perez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-240/+180)
Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 games (+11.10 Units / 36% ROI)

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