Explore Betting Odds and Expert Picks for Twins vs Mets – April 23, 2026

Minnesota Twins

@

New York Mets

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Joe Ryan – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Joe Ryan’s fastball velocity has dropped 1 mph this year (92 mph) below where it was last year (93 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Byron Buxton is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of New York (#3-worst of the day).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Minnesota Twins bats jointly have been among the worst in Major League Baseball this year ( 3rd-worst) as far as their 88.4-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

New York Mets Insights

• Christian Scott – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Christian Scott is projected to throw 82 pitches in this matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 3rd-least on the slate today.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Francisco Alvarez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Francisco Alvarez is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Mark Vientos hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 13 games (+11.20 Units / 75% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.45 Units / 31% ROI)
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Mark Vientos has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+5.85 Units / 73% ROI)