See Picks and Betting Line for Cardinals vs Marlins - Monday, April 20, 2026

+120O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-140

Michael McGreevy – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
Michael McGreevy has recorded 16.8 outs per start since the start of last season, ranking in the 76th percentile.
Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
Ramon Urias – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
Ramon Urias has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 16% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last week.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Jordan Walker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
Jordan Walker hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Max Meyer – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
Max Meyer’s slider rate has increased by 5.1% from last season to this one (46.8% to 51.9%) .
Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
Graham Pauley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
Graham Pauley’s average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 86.6-mph figure last year has fallen to 82.9-mph.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
The Miami Marlins have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Stowers, Owen Caissie, Connor Norby).
Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games (+10.70 Units / 51% ROI)
St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (+120)
The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+6.45 Units / 37% ROI)
Connor Norby – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+900/-2700)
Connor Norby has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 10 games (+6.90 Units / 69% ROI)

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